a)The number of goal opportunities of your opponent (i.e. His ball possession Vs yours)

b)His ability in scoring each of his goal opportunities (i.e. his attack ratings Vs your defense ratings).

c)Your ability in transforming your opponent’s missed chances in counterattacks; and

d) Your ability to score goals in each CA opportunity (Your attack ratings Vs His defense ratings).

Thus, the ideal opponent for a CA focused team has a strong midfield and very weak defense and offensive sides. He will produce many goal opportunities, he will miss most or all of them, you will turn part of these missed chances in scoring opportunities for your team, and you score some or all of these chances. This is obviously an example, and it hardly meets reality, though it might be very good for a conceptual exercise.

CA is nor a winning strategy per se for a simple fact: It might pay off once here and there when you face SOME particular teams, however, there will always be someone in your league whose midfield and offensive power are more than enough to turn you in the underdogg for every match between you. If some team is able to produce at least 6 scoring opportunities against you, and be fairly able to turn 2 or 3 of those chances in goals, you’re probably in trouble. Even if you have monster CA abilities (say you turn 3 or 4 oponent’s missed chances in CA opportunities), you will barely score more than 2 goals.

I find a lot of usefulness in CA as a tactic device, instead of a long term strategy per se. It’s very good to count with CA abilities in 3 situations:

a) You’re facing a weak team (generaly in a cup) whose only threat lies in his midfield power. You not only are able to beat him easily(as his attack places no danger to your highly stronger defense), as you probably gain a PIC opportunity.

b) Your opponent’s midfield is slightly better than yours (ball possession will favour him in 56 or 58% TOPS), your defense is clearly better than his attack (at least 33% better), and your attack is even with his defense. In this case, if you have good CA abilities your winning chances are nearly the same or better as his. If you’re not playn’ CA, he’s got the best odds.

c) Your teams look just the same. Midfields are quite comparable, his attack evens your defense and vice versa. No CA, you’re rolling the dices, basicaly. If on the other hand you have strong CA ratings, you are the one with higher winning chances, because it’s very likely that you will have more scoring chances than he, since you can add to your normal scoring probabilities one or more scoring chances driven by CA’s.

Likewise, in my experience the passing skill of defenders of weak is high enough to get a decent CA rating.

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